Academy Awards Predictions

This is the first time in many years that I have seen all of the Best Picture nominees prior to the telecast. I didn't see AMOUR in time for my Best 10 list, but it's a strong movie and would probably fall somewhere in the runner-up list. BEASTS OF THE SOUTHERN WILD, on the other hand, I feel is vastly overrated. A solid movie, but nowhere near as moving or as entertaining as the other eight nominees.

Here are my predictions. Challenge me if you like.

THE MAJORS

Best Picture: Argo-- For a while, it seemed as though Steven Speilberg's Lincoln (my favorite of the nominees) would clean house and earn the first Best Picture Oscar for a Speilberg movie since 1993's Schindler's List, but a funny thing happened on the way to that coronation. Ben Affleck was snubbed in the Best Director category and suddenly everyone had to think of some way to honor him and his most celebrated film to date. ARGO has been cleaning up all of the minor award shows, and its win at BAFTA (British equivalent of the Oscars) sealed the deal. It's a lock.

Best Director: Steven Speilberg (Lincoln)-- No Ben Affleck here means there's no "rising star" that the Academy always enjoys giving this award to. So go with Plan B. Speilberg will take home his third Best Director trophy here, but much like in Feburary of 1999, where Saving Private Ryan lost to The Miramax Marketing Machine, er, I mean..... Shakespeare in Love, he'll have to be content with half of the Big Two awards.

Best Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln)-- Biggest lock of the ceremony. As obvious now as it was when the movie debuted. Day-Lewis is notoriously picky with his roles, but when he wins his third Best Actor statue here, who can dispute it isn't a good strategy?

Best Actress: Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook)-- For a while, it was neck-and-neck between Lawrence and Zero Dark Thirty's Jessica Chastain. But the latter movie has suffered greatly from controversy. Certain liberals hate it because they think it glorifies torture. And conservatives simmer because they think the Obama administration gave the filmmakers improper access to classified material. Talk about a no-win situation. So Lawrence will win easily. At only 21 years old, she could shatter records at this rate.

Best Supporting Actor: Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln)-- This is a "tossup" category. Jones gave the showiest portrayal of all the nominees, and its been 20 years since he last won an Oscar (for 1993's The Fugitive). But if the Academy decides on Christoph Waltz or Robert DeNiro, I won't be surprised. The latter would be interesting because DeNiro proved in Silver Linings Playbook that he can play a character in a comedy without the joke being all about him. Still, give Jones the edge.

Best Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables)-- Easy pick. A lock since the film's release. Despite being on screen for only about a quarter (at most) of Les Miserables, her character lingers in the mind long after the movie is over.

THE MID MAJORS

Original Screenplay: Amour-- Most movies about an individual on his/her last legs of life don't come close to the level of realism this movie provides. That's why I'm picking it.

Adapted Screenplay: Lincoln-- This is close. It's between this movie and Argo, but a movie about politics means lots and lots of speeches. The dialogue shines brightest here, so score another for Lincoln.

Foreign Language Film: Amour-- By far the highest profile of every movie in this category. Go ahead and bet the mortgage on it.

Animated Film: Wreck-it-Ralph-- I loved this movie, and it just missed my Top 10. Brave is the current front-runner, but not by much. Besides, without seeing either movie, just read about them on IMDB and find out which storyline is more inspired. My point exactly. Upset special alert.

Documentary: Searching for Sugar Man-- Haven't seen any of the nominees, but this is the only one I've even heard of (mostly because of Roger Ebert's glowing review of it). So this is my pick.

THE MINORS

Production Design: Les Miserables-- One of the things that impressed me most about this movie was how Tom Hooper opened up the setting far beyond what a play could provide. 19th Century France looks truly stunning.

Costume Design: Anna Karenina-- Look for the period piece movies to split some awards here. Just a hunch.

Makeup: Les Miserables-- Clearly, Tom Hooper was confident in the makeup jobs when he shot the movie with so many closeups. It put off some people, but I found it appropriate.

Music (Score): Lincoln-- John Williams. Need I say more?

Original Song: "Skyfall" from Skyfall-- It's one of the best Bond songs ever IMO. Adele is as hot a commodity as they come, and on a night when 50 years of 007 is being celebrated, how could this not take home gold?

Film Editing: Argo-- It's a tight race between this and Zero Dark Thirty, but while one movie is hot, the other is ice cold. Going with the momentum here.

Cinematography: Life of Pi-- So many breathtaking shots in this movie; from a purely visual standpoint, it's among the best of the year. And it uses 3D very well.

Sound Edting: Zero Dark Thirty-- The critics' darling of 2012 won't and shouldn't go empty handed. The climactic raid on Bin Laden's compound alone contains enough to win this one.

Sound Mixing: Les Miserables--  Much was made about how songs were recorded live on set rather than pre-recorded and lip-synched later. So chalk up another for Les Mis.

Visual Effects: Life of Pi-- The Academy typically goes with an artistic style of movie that uses special effects. So while The Avengers and Prometheus may be bigger movies with more pronounced visuals, they'll lose to Ang Lee's movie here.

So that's it. I've got Argo winning just two awards including the biggest one of the night. Perhaps next time, the Academy should consider broadening the Best Director field or just limiting the Best Picture field to five again.